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According to CGS-CIMB Research, the m-o-m increase was driven by seasonal factors.Owing to the higher output, the research house estimates local palm oil inventory would grow by 9.8% m-o-m and 21.4% y-o-y to 1.82 million tonnes at the end of July, its highest level since June 2020.

PETALING JAYA: The domestic crude palm oil (CPO) output in July is seen to grow consequently, resulting in higher inventory for the period under review, says CGS-CIMB Research.

From a survey findings by CGS-CIMB Futures team, local CPO output is expected to increase by 2.8% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 1.59 million tonnes in July, a 4.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth.

According to CGS-CIMB Research, the m-o-m increase was driven by seasonal factors.

Owing to the higher output, the research house estimates local palm oil inventory would grow by 9.8% m-o-m and 21.4% y-o-y to 1.82 million tonnes at the end of July, its highest level since June 2020.

“Our estimate of 1.82 million tonnes for July 2022 palm oil stock level in Malaysia is 4% below the 10-year historical July average of 1.89 million tonnes,” CGS-CIMB Research said, adding that the official figures by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board will be released on Aug 10.

“Meanwhile, palm oil exports is also expected to increase by 3.6% m-o-m, but will drop by 12.2% y-o-y to 1.24 million tonnes based on export statistics by cargo surveyors,” it added.

The research house said the higher m-o-m palm oil exports from Malaysia could be due to slower-than-expected palm oil exports from Indonesia in July, as exporters anticipated potential cuts in export tax for Indonesian palm oil from Aug 1.

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Recently, Indonesia lowered its CPO reference price to US$872 (RM3,887.38) per tonne, effective Aug 1 to Aug 15, from July’s reference price of US$1,615.83 (RM7,203.37).

Consequently, for the first two weeks of August, CPO export duty was placed at US$33 (RM147.11) per tonne compared with US$288 (RM1,283.90) in July.

Meanwhile, the Indonesian government had scrapped the export levy, effective July 15 to Aug 31, for palm oil and palm oil products.

For comparison, the levy rate for CPO was at US$200 (RM891.60) per tonne from July 1 to 14.

The research house believes the significantly lower export tax of US$33 (RM147.11) per tonne from Aug 1 to 15, against US$288 (RM1,283.90) per tonne from July 15 to 30, is likely to drive Indonesia’s export shipments as exporters take advantage of the significant savings in CPO export taxes and levy.

On top of that, Indonesia has also raised the domestic market obligation and exports ratio to 1:9 versus 1:7, from Aug 1.

“These two factors will likely lead to weaker palm oil exports from Malaysia in August,” the research house said.

“To put things in perspective, Malaysia’s CPO export tax for August is RM420.60 per tonne, which is higher than Indonesia’s US$33 (RM147.11) per tonne, making Malaysia less competitive versus Indonesia.”